How Much Over Asking

How Much Over Asking Should You Offer in Irvine? What Buyers Actually Paid

Updated November 4, 2026

By Vinura Abeysundara

Head of Growth at TurboHome

Reviewed by:

Vinura Abeysundara

Head of Growth at TurboHome

Kevin Kretzmer

Head Agent, California · CalDRE #01997822

The median home in Irvine closed 2.1% below list price between August and October 2026, and 14.0% of the 520 closings in our MLS feed sold above the asking price. When buyers did pay over asking, the typical winning offer was 1.8% over list, about $25,100 on a median $1,450,000 home, while 74.0% of buyers paid less than asking. Whether you should offer over list in Irvine depends on the neighborhood, the price tier and how long the home has been listed, and the sections below give the numbers for each.

TurboHome Market Analysis · Irvine, CA · Closings August through October 2026 · Published November 2026

Key findings

Median close: 97.9% of list (2.1% below list price), and 3.9% below original asking.
Over, at or under: 14.0% of homes sold above list, 11.9% exactly at list and 74.0% below list.
Size of the premium: when buyers paid over asking, the median premium was 1.8% over list ($25,100), and the 90th percentile closing was 100.8% of list.
Neighborhoods paying the most: El Camino Real (median 99.7% of list), Oak Creek (99.5%) and West Irvine (99.4%).
Most competitive price tier: homes at $3M and up, where 19.6% of 51 closings sold above list at a median 96.2% of list.
Price cuts: 38.1% of closings had at least one price cut before the sale, so a below-list offer is a normal opening move on a listing that has sat.

Irvine offers vs asking: the numbers

Closings in Irvine in our MLS feed, August through October 2026, all home types.

Irvine offers vs asking: the numbers, data table
Metric	Value
Closings analyzed	520
Median close vs list	97.9% of list (2.1% below list price)
Median close vs original asking	3.9% below original asking
Share sold above list	14.0%
Share sold at list	11.9%
Share sold below list	74.0%
Median premium when sold over list	1.8% over list ($25,100)
Median discount when sold under list	$49,880 under list
75th percentile close vs list	100.0% of list
90th percentile close vs list	100.8% of list
Median days on market	30
Share with a price cut before closing	38.1%

Share of closings. Every figure is in the table below.

"Close vs list" compares the sale price with the asking price at the time the offer was accepted, so price cuts made earlier are already baked into the list price. The 90th percentile (100.8% of list in Irvine) shows what the most competitive one in ten offers looked like. A high share of price cuts means list prices are being negotiated down before the sale; in Irvine, 38.1% of closings had at least one cut.

What a winning offer looked like by price tier

Irvine: what a winning offer looked like by price tier, data table
Price tier	Closings	Median close as % of list	Share sold above list
$500k to $750k	41	98.5%	7.3%
$750k to $1M	52	98.2%	11.5%
$1M to $1.5M	178	98.0%	14.6%
$1.5M to $2M	107	97.9%	16.8%
$2M to $3M	86	97.2%	11.6%
$3M and up	51	96.2%	19.6%

Homes at $3M and up had the highest share sold above list, 19.6% of 51 closings, but also the deepest median discount at 96.2% of list, so a few bidding wars sit beside many negotiated sales. The $500k to $750k tier closed closest to list, at a median 98.5%, with 7.3% above asking. Across the tiers the median close slipped from 98.5% of list at the bottom to 96.2% at the top.

Houses vs condos: where the bidding is

Irvine: houses vs condos and townhomes, data table
Home type	Closings	Median close as % of list	Share sold above list
Single family	236	97.2%	17.8%
Condos and townhomes	276	98.2%	11.2%

Single family homes in Irvine closed at a median 97.2% of list, and 17.8% sold above asking. Condos and townhomes closed at a median 98.2% of list with 11.2% above asking, so the bidding is heaviest on single family homes.

Irvine neighborhoods where buyers pay the most over asking (and the least)

Neighborhoods with at least 5 closings in our feed, August through October 2026.

Neighborhoods where Irvine buyers paid the most over asking, data table
Neighborhood	Closings	Median close as % of list	Share sold above list	Median sale price
El Camino Real	25	99.7%	24.0%	$1,350,000
Oak Creek	22	99.5%	13.6%	$1,177,500
West Irvine	8	99.4%	37.5%	$1,709,500
Rancho San Joaquin	8	99.0%	12.5%	$1,104,000

Neighborhoods where Irvine buyers paid the least relative to asking, data table
Neighborhood	Closings	Median close as % of list	Share sold above list	Median sale price
Portola Springs	48	96.7%	8.3%	$1,527,500
University Park	16	96.7%	25.0%	$1,325,000
Shady Canyon	7	95.1%	0.0%	$13,000,000

Buyers paid the most over asking in El Camino Real, where 25 closings went for a median 99.7% of list and 24.0% sold above asking. At the other end, Shady Canyon closed at a median 95.1% of list, with 0.0% above asking. Neighborhood figures rest on far fewer closings than the citywide numbers, so read them as direction rather than a price quote.

Days on market changes the answer

In Irvine, 32.1% of closings went under contract within 14 days, and those homes closed at a median 99.4% of list with 27.5% above asking. Homes that took more than 30 days closed at a median 96.7% of list, and 5.5% sold above asking.

Irvine: what homes closed at by time on market, data table
Time to go under contract	Median close as % of list	Share sold above list
Within 14 days	99.4%	27.5%
More than 30 days	96.7%	5.5%

A home still active after 30 days in Irvine is where below-list offers succeed, because the seller has watched the market pass the home by. A new listing in a hot neighborhood is where the premium is paid, because that is where the competing offers land in the first two weeks.

Is Irvine getting more or less competitive?

Month by month in our feed, Oct 2025 to Oct 2026.

Share sold above list. Every figure is in the table below.

Irvine: share sold above list and median close as % of list, by month, data table
Month	Share sold above list	Median close as % of list
Oct 2025	12%	97.6%
Nov 2025	11%	97.9%
Dec 2025	11%	97.4%
Jan 2026	12%	97.7%
Feb 2026	20%	98.2%
Mar 2026	24%	98.8%
Apr 2026	21%	98.5%
May 2026	21%	98.4%
Jun 2026	17%	98.1%
Jul 2026	11%	97.6%
Aug 2026	14%	98.1%
Sep 2026	13%	97.4%
Oct 2026	15%	97.9%

Irvine: Aug to Oct 2025 vs Aug to Oct 2026, data table
Metric	Year ago (Aug to Oct 2025)	Now (Aug to Oct 2026)
Median close as % of list	97.6%	97.9%
Share sold above list	11.7%	14.0%
Median days on market	33	30
Median dollars over list (sales above list)	$25,001	$25,100
90th percentile close as % of list	100.1%	100.8%
Share with a price cut before closing	44.9%	38.1%

The share of homes sold over asking was 12% in October 2025 (median close 97.6% of list) and 15% in October 2026 (median close 97.9% of list), with a 13-month peak of 24% in March 2026. By the share of homes selling over asking, Irvine is slightly more competitive than a year ago, with 14.0% of closings above list from August through October 2026 against 11.7% from August through October 2025.

Why Irvine buyers can offer under asking

Irvine is a negotiating market for buyers: 74.0% of homes closed below list price, the median closing was 2.1% below list and 3.9% below the original asking price, and 38.1% of sellers cut the price before accepting an offer. Only 14.0% of closings went over asking, and when they did the median premium was 1.8%, about $25,100 on a $1,450,000 median home. El Camino Real (0.3% below list, 24.0% above asking) and West Irvine (37.5% above asking) are the tightest villages, while Portola Springs, with 48 closings at a median 3.3% below list, and University Park at 3.3% below are where sellers are conceding the most. Single family homes closed 2.8% below list and condos 1.8% below, and the $3,000,000 and up tier closed 3.8% below list, so the more expensive the home, the deeper the typical discount.

The national picture

Nationally, Redfin's housing market update published October 29, 2026 (four weeks ending October 25, 2026) reported that 23.2% of U.S. homes sold above list price, the average sale-to-list ratio was 98.3%, 21.5% of listings had a price drop, pending sales were at the lowest level in Redfin's records and the median sale price fell 0.1% year over year, the first decline in more than three years.

In Irvine, 14.0% of homes sold above list and the median closing was 2.1% below list price, so Irvine is softer than the national market.

How to decide what to offer in Irvine

Start from the neighborhood table, not the citywide median. The median Irvine home closed at 97.9% of list, but neighborhoods ranged from a median 99.7% of list in El Camino Real to 95.1% in Shady Canyon.
Check the days on market and the price-cut history of the listing. 38.1% of Irvine closings had a price cut before the sale, and a cut signals room below list. Homes that took more than 30 days closed at a median 96.7% of list.
Size the offer to the home. On a hot listing, the 75th percentile (100.0% of list) and the 90th percentile (100.8%) show what a competitive offer looked like. On a stale one, the median discount on below-list sales ($49,880 under list) is a sensible place to open.
Ask the listing agent how many offers are in and whether there is an offer date. An offer date means the seller is planning for competing bids, so your first offer should be your best one.
Have your agent pull the last five closings on the same street before you name a number. Recent sales next door beat any citywide figure, including the ones on this page.

Methodology

We looked at closings of single family homes, condos and townhouses in Irvine from our MLS feed, closed August through October 2026, with the same months of 2025 for the year-over-year comparison. "Close vs list" is the closing price divided by the list price in effect when the offer was accepted; "close vs original asking" uses the first list price. "Sold above list" means the closing price exceeded the list price by any amount. Neighborhood tables require at least 5 closings. Sales under $50,000 are excluded. Figures are medians unless stated. Published November 2026.

Frequently asked questions

How much over asking do you need to offer in Irvine?

The median Irvine home closed 2.1% below list price (97.9% of list) between August and October 2026. When buyers paid over asking, the median premium was 1.8% over list, or $25,100. A quarter of homes closed at 100.0% of list or higher, and the most competitive one in ten closed at 100.8% of list or higher.

Do homes in Irvine sell over asking price?

Fewer than a third do. 14.0% of Irvine homes in our feed sold above list between August and October 2026, 11.9% sold exactly at list and 74.0% sold below. A year earlier, 11.7% sold above list.

Which Irvine neighborhoods get the most offers over asking?

No Irvine neighborhood closed above list at the median in our feed. The firmest were El Camino Real (median 99.7% of list, 24.0% sold above asking), Oak Creek (median 99.5% of list, 13.6% sold above asking) and West Irvine (median 99.4% of list, 37.5% sold above asking). Buyers paid the least relative to asking in Shady Canyon, at a median 95.1% of list.

Can you offer under asking in Irvine?

Yes, often. 74.0% of Irvine homes sold below list, at a median $49,880 under list, and 38.1% of closings had at least one price cut before the sale. Homes that took more than 30 days to go under contract closed at a median 96.7% of list, with 5.5% selling above asking.

Is Irvine more competitive than last year?

Yes, slightly. 11.7% of Irvine homes sold above list from August through October 2025, against 14.0% from August through October 2026, and the median closing moved from 97.6% to 97.9% of list.

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