How Much Over Asking

How Much Over Asking Should You Offer in San Francisco? What Buyers Actually Paid

Updated November 4, 2026

By Vinura Abeysundara

Head of Growth at TurboHome

Reviewed by:

Vinura Abeysundara

Head of Growth at TurboHome

Kevin Kretzmer

Head Agent, California · CalDRE #01997822

The median home in San Francisco closed 13.7% above list price between August and October 2026, and 77.6% of the 1,163 closings in our MLS feed sold above the asking price. When buyers did pay over asking, the typical winning offer was 20.4% over list, about $311,500 on a median $1,650,000 home, while 13.0% of buyers paid less than asking. Whether you should offer over list in San Francisco depends on the neighborhood, the price tier and how long the home has been listed, and the sections below give the numbers for each.

TurboHome Market Analysis · San Francisco, CA · Closings August through October 2026 · Published November 2026

Key findings

Median close: 113.7% of list (13.7% above list price), and 13.7% above original asking.
Over, at or under: 77.6% of homes sold above list, 9.5% exactly at list and 13.0% below list.
Size of the premium: when buyers paid over asking, the median premium was 20.4% over list ($311,500), and the 90th percentile closing was 149.9% of list.
Neighborhoods paying the most: Sunset District (median 143.6% of list), West of Twin Peaks (134.5%) and Outer Mission (134.4%).
Most competitive price tier: the $2M to $3M tier, where 92.3% of 221 closings sold above list at a median 128.0% of list.
Price cuts: 7.3% of closings had at least one price cut before the sale, so most sellers got their price or more, and a below-list offer rarely works unless the listing has sat.

San Francisco offers vs asking: the numbers

Closings in San Francisco in our MLS feed, August through October 2026, all home types.

San Francisco offers vs asking: the numbers, data table
Metric	Value
Closings analyzed	1,163
Median close vs list	113.7% of list (13.7% above list price)
Median close vs original asking	13.7% above original asking
Share sold above list	77.6%
Share sold at list	9.5%
Share sold below list	13.0%
Median premium when sold over list	20.4% over list ($311,500)
Median discount when sold under list	$30,000 under list
75th percentile close vs list	131.6% of list
90th percentile close vs list	149.9% of list
Median days on market	13
Share with a price cut before closing	7.3%

Share of closings. Every figure is in the table below.

"Close vs list" compares the sale price with the asking price at the time the offer was accepted, so price cuts made earlier are already baked into the list price. The 90th percentile (149.9% of list in San Francisco) shows what the most competitive one in ten offers looked like. A high share of price cuts means list prices are being negotiated down before the sale; in San Francisco, 7.3% of closings had at least one cut.

What a winning offer looked like by price tier

San Francisco: what a winning offer looked like by price tier, data table
Price tier	Closings	Median close as % of list	Share sold above list
Under $500k	54	100.0%	14.8%
$500k to $750k	84	100.1%	50.0%
$750k to $1M	116	101.3%	61.2%
$1M to $1.5M	236	112.0%	78.4%
$1.5M to $2M	246	119.4%	87.4%
$2M to $3M	221	128.0%	92.3%
$3M and up	206	122.5%	85.9%

The $2M to $3M tier was the most competitive in San Francisco, with 92.3% of 221 closings sold above list at a median 128.0% of list. Homes under $500k were the least competitive, with 14.8% sold above list and a median closing at 100.0% of list.

Houses vs condos: where the bidding is

San Francisco: houses vs condos and townhomes, data table
Home type	Closings	Median close as % of list	Share sold above list
Single family	501	128.1%	92.6%
Condos and townhomes	662	104.6%	66.2%

Single family homes in San Francisco closed at a median 128.1% of list, and 92.6% sold above asking. Condos and townhomes closed at a median 104.6% of list with 66.2% above asking, so the bidding is heaviest on single family homes.

San Francisco neighborhoods where buyers pay the most over asking (and the least)

Neighborhoods with at least 10 closings in our feed, August through October 2026.

Neighborhoods where San Francisco buyers paid the most over asking, data table
Neighborhood	Closings	Median close as % of list	Share sold above list	Median sale price
Sunset District	114	143.6%	98.2%	$2,074,000
West of Twin Peaks	35	134.5%	91.4%	$2,700,000
Outer Mission	33	134.4%	97.0%	$1,481,000
Haight-Ashbury	27	130.0%	100.0%	$2,200,000

Neighborhoods where San Francisco buyers paid the least relative to asking, data table
Neighborhood	Closings	Median close as % of list	Share sold above list	Median sale price
Diamond Heights	16	100.0%	43.8%	$577,500
South of Market	127	100.0%	44.9%	$980,000
Financial District	37	100.0%	21.6%	$1,598,888

Buyers paid the most over asking in Sunset District, where 114 closings went for a median 143.6% of list and 98.2% sold above asking. At the other end, Financial District closed at a median 100.0% of list, with 21.6% above asking. Neighborhood figures rest on far fewer closings than the citywide numbers, so read them as direction rather than a price quote.

Days on market changes the answer

In San Francisco, 61.7% of closings went under contract within 14 days, and those homes closed at a median 123.0% of list with 91.5% above asking. Homes that took more than 30 days closed at a median 100.0% of list, and 36.9% sold above asking.

San Francisco: what homes closed at by time on market, data table
Time to go under contract	Median close as % of list	Share sold above list
Within 14 days	123.0%	91.5%
More than 30 days	100.0%	36.9%

A home still active after 30 days in San Francisco is where below-list offers succeed, because the seller has watched the market pass the home by. A new listing in a hot neighborhood is where the premium is paid, because that is where the competing offers land in the first two weeks.

Is San Francisco getting more or less competitive?

Month by month in our feed, Oct 2025 to Oct 2026.

Share sold above list. Every figure is in the table below.

San Francisco: share sold above list and median close as % of list, by month, data table
Month	Share sold above list	Median close as % of list
Oct 2025	62%	103.6%
Nov 2025	61%	102.9%
Dec 2025	47%	100.0%
Jan 2026	49%	100.0%
Feb 2026	66%	106.1%
Mar 2026	73%	109.4%
Apr 2026	73%	112.5%
May 2026	72%	111.9%
Jun 2026	71%	110.1%
Jul 2026	67%	107.1%
Aug 2026	69%	106.9%
Sep 2026	80%	115.4%
Oct 2026	81%	116.5%

San Francisco: Aug to Oct 2025 vs Aug to Oct 2026, data table
Metric	Year ago (Aug to Oct 2025)	Now (Aug to Oct 2026)
Median close as % of list	102.0%	113.7%
Share sold above list	56.4%	77.6%
Median days on market	18	13
Median dollars over list (sales above list)	$180,000	$311,500
90th percentile close as % of list	128.5%	149.9%
Share with a price cut before closing	18.6%	7.3%

The share of homes sold over asking was 62% in October 2025 (median close 103.6% of list) and 81% in October 2026 (median close 116.5% of list). By the share of homes selling over asking, San Francisco is more competitive than a year ago, with 77.6% of closings above list from August through October 2026 against 56.4% from August through October 2025.

Why San Francisco buyers pay over asking

San Francisco is the most aggressive overbidding market in our feed right now, and the Sunset District is the center of it: 114 closings there went for a median 43.6% over list and 98.2% sold above asking, with West of Twin Peaks (34.5% over), the Outer Mission (34.4%) and Haight-Ashbury (30.0%, every one of 27 sales above list) close behind. Listing agents in these single family neighborhoods price well below where they expect to sell, so the list price is an invitation, not a ceiling. The condo market is a different city: the median condo or townhome closed 4.6% over list with 66.2% selling above asking, and in South of Market, the Financial District and Diamond Heights the median closing was exactly at list. The 75th percentile of 131.6% means a quarter of all San Francisco homes closed more than 31.6% over list, so a strong single family offer is usually 20% to 35% over the asking price, while a condo offer can start at list and sometimes below it.

The national picture

Nationally, Redfin's housing market update published October 29, 2026 (four weeks ending October 25, 2026) reported that 23.2% of U.S. homes sold above list price, the average sale-to-list ratio was 98.3%, 21.5% of listings had a price drop, pending sales were at the lowest level in Redfin's records and the median sale price fell 0.1% year over year, the first decline in more than three years.

In San Francisco, 77.6% of homes sold above list and the median closing was 13.7% above list price, so San Francisco is far more competitive than the national market.

How to decide what to offer in San Francisco

Start from the neighborhood table, not the citywide median. The median San Francisco home closed at 113.7% of list, but neighborhoods ranged from a median 143.6% of list in Sunset District to 100.0% in Financial District.
Check the days on market and the price-cut history of the listing. 7.3% of San Francisco closings had a price cut before the sale, and a cut signals room below list. Homes that took more than 30 days closed at a median 100.0% of list.
Size the offer to the home. On a hot listing, the 75th percentile (131.6% of list) and the 90th percentile (149.9%) show what a competitive offer looked like. On a stale one, the median discount on below-list sales ($30,000 under list) is a sensible place to open.
Ask the listing agent how many offers are in and whether there is an offer date. An offer date means the seller is planning for competing bids, so your first offer should be your best one.
Have your agent pull the last five closings on the same street before you name a number. Recent sales next door beat any citywide figure, including the ones on this page.

Methodology

We looked at closings of single family homes, condos and townhouses in San Francisco from our MLS feed, closed August through October 2026, with the same months of 2025 for the year-over-year comparison. "Close vs list" is the closing price divided by the list price in effect when the offer was accepted; "close vs original asking" uses the first list price. "Sold above list" means the closing price exceeded the list price by any amount. Neighborhood tables require at least 10 closings. Sales under $50,000 are excluded. Figures are medians unless stated. Published November 2026.

Frequently asked questions

How much over asking do you need to offer in San Francisco?

The median San Francisco home closed 13.7% above list price (113.7% of list) between August and October 2026. When buyers paid over asking, the median premium was 20.4% over list, or $311,500. A quarter of homes closed at 131.6% of list or higher, and the most competitive one in ten closed at 149.9% of list or higher.

Do homes in San Francisco sell over asking price?

Yes, most do. 77.6% of San Francisco homes in our feed sold above list between August and October 2026, 9.5% sold exactly at list and 13.0% sold below. A year earlier, 56.4% sold above list.

Which San Francisco neighborhoods get the most offers over asking?

The highest closings against list in our feed were in Sunset District (median 143.6% of list, 98.2% sold above asking), West of Twin Peaks (median 134.5% of list, 91.4% sold above asking) and Outer Mission (median 134.4% of list, 97.0% sold above asking). Buyers paid the least relative to asking in Financial District, at a median 100.0% of list.

Can you offer under asking in San Francisco?

Rarely, but it happens. 13.0% of San Francisco homes sold below list, at a median $30,000 under list, and 7.3% of closings had at least one price cut before the sale. Homes that took more than 30 days to go under contract closed at a median 100.0% of list, with 36.9% selling above asking.

Is San Francisco more competitive than last year?

Yes. 56.4% of San Francisco homes sold above list from August through October 2025, against 77.6% from August through October 2026, and the median closing moved from 102.0% to 113.7% of list.

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