How Much Over Asking

How Much Over Asking Should You Offer in San Diego? What Buyers Actually Paid

Updated November 4, 2026

By Vinura Abeysundara

Head of Growth at TurboHome

Reviewed by:

Vinura Abeysundara

Head of Growth at TurboHome

Kevin Kretzmer

Head Agent, California · CalDRE #01997822

The median home in San Diego closed 0.7% below list price between August and October 2026, and 29.6% of the 2,060 closings in our MLS feed sold above the asking price. When buyers did pay over asking, the typical winning offer was 2.4% over list, about $20,000 on a median $935,000 home, while 53.3% of buyers paid less than asking. Whether you should offer over list in San Diego depends on the neighborhood, the price tier and how long the home has been listed, and the sections below give the numbers for each.

TurboHome Market Analysis · San Diego, CA · Closings August through October 2026 · Published November 2026

Key findings

Median close: 99.3% of list (0.7% below list price), and 1.6% below original asking.
Over, at or under: 29.6% of homes sold above list, 17.0% exactly at list and 53.3% below list.
Size of the premium: when buyers paid over asking, the median premium was 2.4% over list ($20,000), and the 90th percentile closing was 103.5% of list.
Neighborhoods paying the most: Otay Mesa West (median 101.5% of list), Skyline / Paradise Hills (101.1%) and Nestor (100.6%).
Most competitive price tier: the $2M to $3M tier, where 33.3% of 138 closings sold above list at a median 100.0% of list.
Price cuts: 30.5% of closings had at least one price cut before the sale, so a below-list offer is a normal opening move on a listing that has sat.

San Diego offers vs asking: the numbers

Closings in San Diego in our MLS feed, August through October 2026, all home types.

San Diego offers vs asking: the numbers, data table
Metric	Value
Closings analyzed	2,060
Median close vs list	99.3% of list (0.7% below list price)
Median close vs original asking	1.6% below original asking
Share sold above list	29.6%
Share sold at list	17.0%
Share sold below list	53.3%
Median premium when sold over list	2.4% over list ($20,000)
Median discount when sold under list	$25,000 under list
75th percentile close vs list	100.6% of list
90th percentile close vs list	103.5% of list
Median days on market	17
Share with a price cut before closing	30.5%

Share of closings. Every figure is in the table below.

"Close vs list" compares the sale price with the asking price at the time the offer was accepted, so price cuts made earlier are already baked into the list price. The 90th percentile (103.5% of list in San Diego) shows what the most competitive one in ten offers looked like. A high share of price cuts means list prices are being negotiated down before the sale; in San Diego, 30.5% of closings had at least one cut.

What a winning offer looked like by price tier

San Diego: what a winning offer looked like by price tier, data table
Price tier	Closings	Median close as % of list	Share sold above list
Under $500k	235	99.0%	25.5%
$500k to $750k	455	99.8%	29.9%
$750k to $1M	446	99.5%	31.2%
$1M to $1.5M	509	99.2%	29.5%
$1.5M to $2M	212	99.3%	32.1%
$2M to $3M	138	100.0%	33.3%
$3M and up	65	97.8%	16.9%

The $2M to $3M tier was the most competitive in San Diego, with 33.3% of 138 closings sold above list at a median 100.0% of list. Homes at $3M and up were the least competitive, with 16.9% sold above list and a median closing at 97.8% of list.

Houses vs condos: where the bidding is

San Diego: houses vs condos and townhomes, data table
Home type	Closings	Median close as % of list	Share sold above list
Single family	1,193	100.0%	35.0%
Condos and townhomes	847	98.9%	22.2%

Single family homes in San Diego closed at a median 100.0% of list, and 35.0% sold above asking. Condos and townhomes closed at a median 98.9% of list with 22.2% above asking, so the bidding is heaviest on single family homes.

San Diego neighborhoods where buyers pay the most over asking (and the least)

Neighborhoods with at least 10 closings in our feed, August through October 2026.

Neighborhoods where San Diego buyers paid the most over asking, data table
Neighborhood	Closings	Median close as % of list	Share sold above list	Median sale price
Otay Mesa West	27	101.5%	63.0%	$760,000
Skyline / Paradise Hills	44	101.1%	70.5%	$735,000
Nestor	19	100.6%	57.9%	$787,000
Encanto	29	100.1%	51.7%	$793,000

Neighborhoods where San Diego buyers paid the least relative to asking, data table
Neighborhood	Closings	Median close as % of list	Share sold above list	Median sale price
Scripps Ranch	40	98.2%	20.0%	$1,277,000
Downtown San Diego	137	98.0%	10.9%	$675,000
Mission Beach	11	95.5%	9.1%	$1,550,000

Buyers paid the most over asking in Otay Mesa West, where 27 closings went for a median 101.5% of list and 63.0% sold above asking. At the other end, Mission Beach closed at a median 95.5% of list, with 9.1% above asking. Neighborhood figures rest on far fewer closings than the citywide numbers, so read them as direction rather than a price quote.

Days on market changes the answer

In San Diego, 45.3% of closings went under contract within 14 days, and those homes closed at a median 100.0% of list with 44.8% above asking. Homes that took more than 30 days closed at a median 98.0% of list, and 14.6% sold above asking.

San Diego: what homes closed at by time on market, data table
Time to go under contract	Median close as % of list	Share sold above list
Within 14 days	100.0%	44.8%
More than 30 days	98.0%	14.6%

A home still active after 30 days in San Diego is where below-list offers succeed, because the seller has watched the market pass the home by. A new listing in a hot neighborhood is where the premium is paid, because that is where the competing offers land in the first two weeks.

Is San Diego getting more or less competitive?

Month by month in our feed, Oct 2025 to Oct 2026.

Share sold above list. Every figure is in the table below.

San Diego: share sold above list and median close as % of list, by month, data table
Month	Share sold above list	Median close as % of list
Oct 2025	27%	99.4%
Nov 2025	29%	99.3%
Dec 2025	32%	100.0%
Jan 2026	29%	99.1%
Feb 2026	32%	99.9%
Mar 2026	35%	100.0%
Apr 2026	38%	100.0%
May 2026	37%	100.0%
Jun 2026	33%	100.0%
Jul 2026	35%	100.0%
Aug 2026	33%	100.0%
Sep 2026	28%	99.2%
Oct 2026	27%	99.2%

San Diego: Aug to Oct 2025 vs Aug to Oct 2026, data table
Metric	Year ago (Aug to Oct 2025)	Now (Aug to Oct 2026)
Median close as % of list	99.3%	99.3%
Share sold above list	27.0%	29.6%
Median days on market	20	17
Median dollars over list (sales above list)	$14,480	$20,000
90th percentile close as % of list	102.6%	103.5%
Share with a price cut before closing	34.8%	30.5%

The share of homes sold over asking was 27% in October 2025 (median close 99.4% of list) and 27% in October 2026 (median close 99.2% of list), with a 13-month peak of 38% in April 2026. By the share of homes selling over asking, San Diego is slightly more competitive than a year ago, with 29.6% of closings above list from August through October 2026 against 27.0% from August through October 2025.

Why San Diego buyers can offer under asking

San Diego is close to an at-list market with a clear geography: the median closing was 0.7% below list, 29.6% of homes sold above asking and 53.3% sold below. The South Bay and southeastern San Diego carry the competition: Otay Mesa West closed 1.5% over list with 63.0% above asking, Skyline and Paradise Hills 1.1% over with 70.5%, Nestor 0.6% over with 57.9% and Encanto 0.1% over with 51.7%. Downtown San Diego condos (137 closings) closed 2.0% below list with only 10.9% above asking, Scripps Ranch closed 1.8% below and Mission Beach 4.5% below. Single family homes closed at list with 35.0% above asking; condos and townhomes closed 1.1% below list with 22.2% above. A year earlier 27.0% of homes sold over asking, so competition has edged up even as the median days on market fell from 20 to 17.

The national picture

Nationally, Redfin's housing market update published October 29, 2026 (four weeks ending October 25, 2026) reported that 23.2% of U.S. homes sold above list price, the average sale-to-list ratio was 98.3%, 21.5% of listings had a price drop, pending sales were at the lowest level in Redfin's records and the median sale price fell 0.1% year over year, the first decline in more than three years.

In San Diego, 29.6% of homes sold above list and the median closing was 0.7% below list price, so San Diego is roughly in line with the national market.

How to decide what to offer in San Diego

Start from the neighborhood table, not the citywide median. The median San Diego home closed at 99.3% of list, but neighborhoods ranged from a median 101.5% of list in Otay Mesa West to 95.5% in Mission Beach.
Check the days on market and the price-cut history of the listing. 30.5% of San Diego closings had a price cut before the sale, and a cut signals room below list. Homes that took more than 30 days closed at a median 98.0% of list.
Size the offer to the home. On a hot listing, the 75th percentile (100.6% of list) and the 90th percentile (103.5%) show what a competitive offer looked like. On a stale one, the median discount on below-list sales ($25,000 under list) is a sensible place to open.
Ask the listing agent how many offers are in and whether there is an offer date. An offer date means the seller is planning for competing bids, so your first offer should be your best one.
Have your agent pull the last five closings on the same street before you name a number. Recent sales next door beat any citywide figure, including the ones on this page.

Methodology

We looked at closings of single family homes, condos and townhouses in San Diego from our MLS feed, closed August through October 2026, with the same months of 2025 for the year-over-year comparison. "Close vs list" is the closing price divided by the list price in effect when the offer was accepted; "close vs original asking" uses the first list price. "Sold above list" means the closing price exceeded the list price by any amount. Neighborhood tables require at least 10 closings. Sales under $50,000 are excluded. Figures are medians unless stated. Published November 2026.

Frequently asked questions

How much over asking do you need to offer in San Diego?

The median San Diego home closed 0.7% below list price (99.3% of list) between August and October 2026. When buyers paid over asking, the median premium was 2.4% over list, or $20,000. A quarter of homes closed at 100.6% of list or higher, and the most competitive one in ten closed at 103.5% of list or higher.

Do homes in San Diego sell over asking price?

Fewer than a third do. 29.6% of San Diego homes in our feed sold above list between August and October 2026, 17.0% sold exactly at list and 53.3% sold below. A year earlier, 27.0% sold above list.

Which San Diego neighborhoods get the most offers over asking?

The highest closings against list in our feed were in Otay Mesa West (median 101.5% of list, 63.0% sold above asking), Skyline / Paradise Hills (median 101.1% of list, 70.5% sold above asking) and Nestor (median 100.6% of list, 57.9% sold above asking). Buyers paid the least relative to asking in Mission Beach, at a median 95.5% of list.

Can you offer under asking in San Diego?

Yes, often. 53.3% of San Diego homes sold below list, at a median $25,000 under list, and 30.5% of closings had at least one price cut before the sale. Homes that took more than 30 days to go under contract closed at a median 98.0% of list, with 14.6% selling above asking.

Is San Diego more competitive than last year?

Yes, slightly. 27.0% of San Diego homes sold above list from August through October 2025, against 29.6% from August through October 2026, and the median closing moved from 99.3% to 99.3% of list.

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