How Much Over Asking

How Much Over Asking Should You Offer in Oakland? What Buyers Actually Paid

Updated November 4, 2026

By Vinura Abeysundara

Head of Growth at TurboHome

Reviewed by:

Vinura Abeysundara

Head of Growth at TurboHome

Kevin Kretzmer

Head Agent, California · CalDRE #01997822

The median home in Oakland closed 10.0% above list price between August and October 2026, and 72.2% of the 623 closings in our MLS feed sold above the asking price. When buyers did pay over asking, the typical winning offer was 17.7% over list, about $152,000 on a median $806,000 home, while 18.5% of buyers paid less than asking. Whether you should offer over list in Oakland depends on the neighborhood, the price tier and how long the home has been listed, and the sections below give the numbers for each.

TurboHome Market Analysis · Oakland, CA · Closings August through October 2026 · Published November 2026

Key findings

Median close: 110.0% of list (10.0% above list price), and 9.8% above original asking.
Over, at or under: 72.2% of homes sold above list, 9.3% exactly at list and 18.5% below list.
Size of the premium: when buyers paid over asking, the median premium was 17.7% over list ($152,000), and the 90th percentile closing was 146.5% of list.
Neighborhoods paying the most: Temescal (median 142.6% of list), Redwood Heights (131.6%) and Glenview (131.3%).
Most competitive price tier: homes at $3M and up, where 100.0% of 15 closings sold above list at a median 135.4% of list.
Price cuts: 15.1% of closings had at least one price cut before the sale, so a below-list offer works on some listings, mostly ones that have already been cut or have sat.

Oakland offers vs asking: the numbers

Closings in Oakland in our MLS feed, August through October 2026, all home types.

Oakland offers vs asking: the numbers, data table
Metric	Value
Closings analyzed	623
Median close vs list	110.0% of list (10.0% above list price)
Median close vs original asking	9.8% above original asking
Share sold above list	72.2%
Share sold at list	9.3%
Share sold below list	18.5%
Median premium when sold over list	17.7% over list ($152,000)
Median discount when sold under list	$20,000 under list
75th percentile close vs list	126.4% of list
90th percentile close vs list	146.5% of list
Median days on market	15
Share with a price cut before closing	15.1%

Share of closings. Every figure is in the table below.

"Close vs list" compares the sale price with the asking price at the time the offer was accepted, so price cuts made earlier are already baked into the list price. The 90th percentile (146.5% of list in Oakland) shows what the most competitive one in ten offers looked like. A high share of price cuts means list prices are being negotiated down before the sale; in Oakland, 15.1% of closings had at least one cut.

What a winning offer looked like by price tier

Oakland: what a winning offer looked like by price tier, data table
Price tier	Closings	Median close as % of list	Share sold above list
Under $500k	117	100.0%	30.8%
$500k to $750k	168	103.0%	63.1%
$750k to $1M	98	110.8%	83.7%
$1M to $1.5M	114	127.1%	94.7%
$1.5M to $2M	83	129.4%	94.0%
$2M to $3M	28	147.6%	89.3%
$3M and up	15	135.4%	100.0%

Homes at $3M and up were the most competitive by share, with all 15 closings (100.0%) sold above list at a median 135.4% of list, and the $2M to $3M tier closed at the highest median, 147.6% of list. Homes under $500k were the least competitive, with 30.8% sold above list and a median closing at 100.0% of list.

Houses vs condos: where the bidding is

Oakland: houses vs condos and townhomes, data table
Home type	Closings	Median close as % of list	Share sold above list
Single family	480	114.6%	81.0%
Condos and townhomes	142	100.0%	43.0%

Single family homes in Oakland closed at a median 114.6% of list, and 81.0% sold above asking. Condos and townhomes closed at a median 100.0% of list with 43.0% above asking, so the bidding is heaviest on single family homes.

Oakland neighborhoods where buyers pay the most over asking (and the least)

Neighborhoods with at least 10 closings in our feed, August through October 2026.

Neighborhoods where Oakland buyers paid the most over asking, data table
Neighborhood	Closings	Median close as % of list	Share sold above list	Median sale price
Temescal	10	142.6%	90.0%	$1,391,000
Redwood Heights	14	131.6%	78.6%	$1,383,000
Glenview	14	131.3%	85.7%	$1,385,000
Merriwood	14	131.2%	85.7%	$1,215,000

Neighborhoods where Oakland buyers paid the least relative to asking, data table
Neighborhood	Closings	Median close as % of list	Share sold above list	Median sale price
Adams Point	14	101.4%	64.3%	$420,000
Sequoyah	11	100.9%	72.7%	$1,100,000
Produce and Waterfront	12	100.3%	50.0%	$530,000

Buyers paid the most over asking in Temescal, where 10 closings went for a median 142.6% of list and 90.0% sold above asking. At the other end, Produce and Waterfront closed at a median 100.3% of list, with 50.0% above asking. Neighborhood figures rest on far fewer closings than the citywide numbers, so read them as direction rather than a price quote.

Days on market changes the answer

In Oakland, 47.8% of closings went under contract within 14 days, and those homes closed at a median 123.6% of list with 91.6% above asking. Homes that took more than 30 days closed at a median 100.0% of list, and 36.3% sold above asking.

Oakland: what homes closed at by time on market, data table
Time to go under contract	Median close as % of list	Share sold above list
Within 14 days	123.6%	91.6%
More than 30 days	100.0%	36.3%

A home still active after 30 days in Oakland is where below-list offers succeed, because the seller has watched the market pass the home by. A new listing in a hot neighborhood is where the premium is paid, because that is where the competing offers land in the first two weeks.

Is Oakland getting more or less competitive?

Month by month in our feed, Oct 2025 to Oct 2026.

Share sold above list. Every figure is in the table below.

Oakland: share sold above list and median close as % of list, by month, data table
Month	Share sold above list	Median close as % of list
Oct 2025	65%	106.6%
Nov 2025	58%	101.4%
Dec 2025	57%	101.4%
Jan 2026	45%	100.0%
Feb 2026	64%	103.8%
Mar 2026	77%	107.5%
Apr 2026	69%	106.5%
May 2026	77%	109.5%
Jun 2026	68%	108.1%
Jul 2026	65%	105.6%
Aug 2026	72%	106.8%
Sep 2026	72%	110.1%
Oct 2026	72%	111.5%

Oakland: Aug to Oct 2025 vs Aug to Oct 2026, data table
Metric	Year ago (Aug to Oct 2025)	Now (Aug to Oct 2026)
Median close as % of list	103.2%	110.0%
Share sold above list	63.7%	72.2%
Median days on market	20	15
Median dollars over list (sales above list)	$100,000	$152,000
90th percentile close as % of list	130.2%	146.5%
Share with a price cut before closing	23.1%	15.1%

The share of homes sold over asking was 65% in October 2025 (median close 106.6% of list) and 72% in October 2026 (median close 111.5% of list), with a 13-month peak of 77% in March 2026. By the share of homes selling over asking, Oakland is more competitive than a year ago, with 72.2% of closings above list from August through October 2026 against 63.7% from August through October 2025.

Why Oakland buyers pay over asking

Oakland overbids almost as hard as San Francisco, and the premium is concentrated in the hills and in Temescal and Glenview: Temescal closings went for a median 42.6% over list (9 of 10 above asking), and Redwood Heights, Glenview and Merriwood all cleared 31% over. Single family homes citywide closed at a median 14.6% over list with 81.0% selling above asking, while condos and townhomes closed at list with 43.0% above. Price tier matters more than anywhere else in our feed: homes under $500,000 closed at list (30.8% over asking), $750,000 to $1,000,000 homes closed 10.8% over, and $1,000,000 to $2,000,000 homes closed 27% to 29% over. Adams Point condos and the Produce and Waterfront district are the places where a buyer can still win at or near asking.

The national picture

Nationally, Redfin's housing market update published October 29, 2026 (four weeks ending October 25, 2026) reported that 23.2% of U.S. homes sold above list price, the average sale-to-list ratio was 98.3%, 21.5% of listings had a price drop, pending sales were at the lowest level in Redfin's records and the median sale price fell 0.1% year over year, the first decline in more than three years.

In Oakland, 72.2% of homes sold above list and the median closing was 10.0% above list price, so Oakland is far more competitive than the national market.

How to decide what to offer in Oakland

Start from the neighborhood table, not the citywide median. The median Oakland home closed at 110.0% of list, but neighborhoods ranged from a median 142.6% of list in Temescal to 100.3% in Produce and Waterfront.
Check the days on market and the price-cut history of the listing. 15.1% of Oakland closings had a price cut before the sale, and a cut signals room below list. Homes that took more than 30 days closed at a median 100.0% of list.
Size the offer to the home. On a hot listing, the 75th percentile (126.4% of list) and the 90th percentile (146.5%) show what a competitive offer looked like. On a stale one, the median discount on below-list sales ($20,000 under list) is a sensible place to open.
Ask the listing agent how many offers are in and whether there is an offer date. An offer date means the seller is planning for competing bids, so your first offer should be your best one.
Have your agent pull the last five closings on the same street before you name a number. Recent sales next door beat any citywide figure, including the ones on this page.

Methodology

We looked at closings of single family homes, condos and townhouses in Oakland from our MLS feed, closed August through October 2026, with the same months of 2025 for the year-over-year comparison. "Close vs list" is the closing price divided by the list price in effect when the offer was accepted; "close vs original asking" uses the first list price. "Sold above list" means the closing price exceeded the list price by any amount. Neighborhood tables require at least 10 closings. Sales under $50,000 are excluded. Figures are medians unless stated. Published November 2026.

Frequently asked questions

How much over asking do you need to offer in Oakland?

The median Oakland home closed 10.0% above list price (110.0% of list) between August and October 2026. When buyers paid over asking, the median premium was 17.7% over list, or $152,000. A quarter of homes closed at 126.4% of list or higher, and the most competitive one in ten closed at 146.5% of list or higher.

Do homes in Oakland sell over asking price?

Yes, most do. 72.2% of Oakland homes in our feed sold above list between August and October 2026, 9.3% sold exactly at list and 18.5% sold below. A year earlier, 63.7% sold above list.

Which Oakland neighborhoods get the most offers over asking?

The highest closings against list in our feed were in Temescal (median 142.6% of list, 90.0% sold above asking), Redwood Heights (median 131.6% of list, 78.6% sold above asking) and Glenview (median 131.3% of list, 85.7% sold above asking). Buyers paid the least relative to asking in Produce and Waterfront, at a median 100.3% of list.

Can you offer under asking in Oakland?

Rarely, but it happens. 18.5% of Oakland homes sold below list, at a median $20,000 under list, and 15.1% of closings had at least one price cut before the sale. Homes that took more than 30 days to go under contract closed at a median 100.0% of list, with 36.3% selling above asking.

Is Oakland more competitive than last year?

Yes. 63.7% of Oakland homes sold above list from August through October 2025, against 72.2% from August through October 2026, and the median closing moved from 103.2% to 110.0% of list.

Make your offer in Oakland with a flat-fee buyer's agent

About the Author